全球大气温度廓线的统计特性分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

罗双  尹球 《热带气象学报》2019,35(4):556-566

利用欧洲数值预报中心发布的第三代ERA-Interim月平均再分析资料对1979—2016年全球大气温度廓线进行统计,分别探讨了南、北半球大气温度廓线平均值和标准差随季节、纬度和海陆的时空分布特征,并与国内外常用的AFGL标准大气廓线进行了对比。研究结果表明:南、北半球各高度层温度的平均值、频数最大温度区间和最大值垂直分布均随高度先减小后增加;在大气低层,多年的温度波动较大,200 hPa处波动达到最小;不论是北半球还是南半球,大气温度平均值廓线均具有典型的纬度差异,其中低纬度季节性差异较小,中纬度次之,高纬季节性差异最大;各季节大气温度廓线的海陆差异不同,且南半球海陆差异比北半球大。大气温度标准差廓线同样存在纬度、海陆和季节分布差异。根据ECMWF再分析资料构建的温度廓线较AFGL标准大气廓线而言具有更加丰富的时空分布等细节特征,并且代表了气候变化后最新的大气温度状况。有关结果可作为现有标准大气廓线的更新和完善,为新型卫星仪器应用性能评估、辐射传输算法和大气反演方法评价和对比分析提供支持。   相似文献   

福建省晋江市城市热岛强度时空变化特征分析     

王可心  陈粲  包云轩  吕青  奴开 《热带气象学报》2019,35(6):852-864

利用传统的气象站法, 结合空间统计学方法(普通克里金插值法), 对福建省晋江市2010—2014年40个自动气象站逐小时温度资料加以计算处理, 分析了晋江市年、季、昼夜热岛强度时空变化规律。(1)晋江市年、季、昼夜热岛强度都呈带状分布, 等值线呈西南-东北走向, 年、季、昼夜变化趋势显著, 北部热岛强度高于南部。五年间热岛强度持续增强, 但增幅不大, 增速放缓。(2)城市化水平的提高, 会导致热岛强度高值出现季节提前, 故旅游区秋冬季热岛强度高于春夏季, 中心城区和产业经济区夏秋季热岛强度高于冬春季。(3)晋江市热岛效应昼夜空间分布格局差异性大, 夜间热岛强度显著高于白天, 最低值出现在14—16时, 中心城区和产业经济区最低值出现时间较旅游区略推迟, 三个功能区的最高值均出现在凌晨。   相似文献   

A study of variability of annual river flow of the southern African region     

BERHANU FANTA  B. T. ZAAKE  R. K. KACHROO 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):513-524

Abstract

Variability of river flow is investigated in 502 river flow gauging stations in nine countries of the southern African region with a view to document the spatial variability of the river flow regimes. Those regions where there is strong evidence of declining or increasing trend in annual runoff have been identified. The study has shown that runoff in the region ranges from over 320 mm year^?1 in the Lower Zambezi and the highlands of Tanzania to less than 10 mm year^?1 in the deserts of Namibia and the Kalahari. There is also evidence of declining runoff in parts of Zambia, Angola, Mozambique and the High Veld in South Africa. The recent decline seems to have started from around 1975.  相似文献   

Suspended particulate matter in the St. Lawrence estuary and Gulf surface layer and development of a remote sensing algorithm     

P. Larouche  U. Boyer-Villemaire 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2010

Remote sensing of chlorophyll concentration is potentially affected by the presence of inorganic matter in the water column. Seasonal variability of total suspended particulate matter (SPM) concentration and its partition into organic and inorganic fractions was thus measured in the estuary and Gulf of St. Lawrence during five cruises. These measures were made in the surface layer down to the depth of the 0.1% light level. Results indicate that vertical variability was small for the entire study area. Data analysis lead to the definition of two main regions having different SPM characteristics: 1) the estuary zone characterized by a strong spatial variability, intermediate SPM concentrations and a clear spring phytoplankton bloom that is combined to an increased inorganic matter load; 2) the gulf region characterized by a relatively low SPM concentration and phytoplankton blooms in the spring and fall periods. Combined with in situ measurements of remote sensing reflectances, the database was used to validate existing inorganic matter retrieval algorithms and develop a new one better adapted to the low concentrations encountered in the St. Lawrence estuary and Gulf.  相似文献   

A methodology for regional flood frequency estimation based on scaling properties     

Thomas Skaugen  Thomas Vringstad 《水文研究》2005,19(7):1481-1495

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Spatial–temporal variability and hydrologic connectivity of runoff generation areas in a North Alabama pasture—implications for phosphorus transport     

Sumit Sen  Puneet Srivastava  Jacob H. Dane  Kyung H. Yoo  Joey N. Shaw 《水文研究》2010,24(3):342-356

This study delineated spatially and temporally variable runoff generation areas in the Sand Mountain region pasture of North Alabama under natural rainfall conditions, and demonstrated that hydrologic connectivity is important for generating hillslope response when infiltration‐excess (IE) runoff mechanism dominates. Data from six rainfall events (13·7–32·3 mm) on an intensively instrumented pasture hillslope (0·12 ha) were analysed. Analysis of data from surface runoff sensors, tipping bucket rain gauge and HS‐flume demonstrated spatial and temporal variability in runoff generation areas. Results showed that the maximum runoff generation area, which contributed to runoff at the outlet of the hillslope, varied between 67 and 100%. Furthermore, because IE was the main runoff generation mechanism on the hillslope, the data showed that as the rainfall intensity changed during a rainfall event, the runoff generation areas expanded or contracted. During rainfall events with high‐intensity short‐ to medium‐duration, 4–8% of total rainfall was converted to runoff at the outlet. Rainfall events with medium‐ to low‐intensity, medium‐duration were found less likely to generate runoff at the outlet. In situ soil hydraulic conductivity (k) was measured across the hillslope, which confirmed its effect on hydrologic connectivity of runoff generation areas. Combined surface runoff sensor and k‐interpolated data clearly showed that during a rainfall event, lower k areas generate runoff first, and then, depending on rainfall intensity, runoff at the outlet is generated by hydrologically connected areas. It was concluded that in IE‐runoff‐dominated areas, rainfall intensity and k can explain hydrologic response. The study demonstrated that only connected areas of low k values generate surface runoff during high‐intensity rainfall events. Identification of these areas would serve as an important foundation for controlling nonpoint source pollutant transport, especially phosphorus. The best management practices can be developed and implemented to reduce transport of phosphorus from these hydrologically connected areas. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Uncertainty,entropy, scaling and hydrological stochastics. 1. Marginal distributional properties of hydrological processes and state scaling / Incertitude,entropie, effet d'échelle et propriétés stochastiques hydrologiques. 1. Propriétés distributionnelles marginales des processus hydrologiques et échelle d'état     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3)

Abstract

The well-established physical and mathematical principle of maximum entropy (ME), is used to explain the distributional and autocorrelation properties of hydrological processes, including the scaling behaviour both in state and in time. In this context, maximum entropy is interpreted as maximum uncertainty. The conditions used for the maximization of entropy are as simple as possible, i.e. that hydrological processes are non-negative with specified coefficients of variation (CV) and lag one autocorrelation. In this first part of the study, the marginal distributional properties of hydrological variables and the state scaling behaviour are investigated. Application of the ME principle under these very simple conditions results in the truncated normal distribution for small values of CV and in a nonexponential type (Pareto) distribution for high values of CV. In addition, the normal and the exponential distributions appear as limiting cases of these two distributions. Testing of these theoretical results with numerous hydrological data sets on several scales validates the applicability of the ME principle, thus emphasizing the dominance of uncertainty in hydrological processes. Both theoretical and empirical results show that the state scaling is only an approximation for the high return periods, which is merely valid when processes have high variation on small time scales. In other cases the normal distributional behaviour, which does not have state scaling properties, is a more appropriate approximation. Interestingly however, as discussed in the second part of the study, the normal distribution combined with positive autocorrelation of a process, results in time scaling behaviour due to the ME principle.  相似文献   

The influence of dam and lakes on the Yangtze River streamflow: long‐range correlation and complexity analyses     

Qiang Zhang  Yu Zhou  Vijay P. Singh  Xiaohong Chen 《水文研究》2012,26(3):436-444

Employing long‐range correlation, complexity features and clustering, this study investigated the influence of dam and lake‐river systems on the Yangtze River flow. The impact of the Gezhouba Dam and the lake systems on streamflow was evaluated by analysing daily streamflow records at the Cuntan, the Yichang and the Datong station. Results indicated no evident influence of the Gezhouba Dam on streamflow changes. Distinct differences in scaling behaviour, long‐range correlation and clustering of streamflow at the Datong station when compared with those at the Cuntan and Yichang stations undoubtedly showed the influence of water storage and the buffering effect of the lake systems between the Datong station and other two hydrological stations on streamflow in the lower Yangtze River basin. Decreased regularity, enhanced long‐range correlation and increased clustering of streamflow in the lower Yangtze River basin due to the effect of water storage of the lake systems were corroborated. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A probability-weighted moment test to assess simple scaling     

Praveen Kumar  Peter Guttarp  Efi Foufoula-Georgiou 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1994,8(3):173-183

We present a statistically robust approach based on probability weighted moments to assess the presence of simple scaling in geophysical processes. The proposed approach is different from current approaches which rely on estimation of high order moments. High order moments of simple scaling processes (distributions) may not have theoretically defined values and consequently, their empirical estimates are highly variable and do not converge with increasing sample size. They are, therefore, not an appropriate tool for inference. On the other hand we show that the probability weighted moments of such processes (distributions) do exist and, hence, their empirical estimates are more robust. These moments, therefore, provide an appropriate tool for inferring the presence of scaling. We illustrate this using simulated Levystable processes and then draw inference on the nature of scaling in fluctuations of a spatial rainfall process.  相似文献   

Issues of Spatial and Temporal Variability in Climate Impact Studies     

Gregory J. Carbone 《The Professional geographer》1995,47(1):30-40

The accuracy of impact estimates relating climate change to regional-scale agricultural production is constrained by the temporal and spatial resolution of climate change projections. Several techniques have been used to compensate for these limitations in order to provide reasonable estimates of the impact of climate change on crop yield. One approach assumes that variability over time can substitute for spatial variability, thereby reducing the need to estimate the impacts at a spatially dense network of stations—an assumption that has not been generally tested. This study evaluates this assumption using methods similar to those employed in the climate impact literature. The findings suggest that current practices are generally defensible if the goal is to provide a range of possible crop responses to climate change. However, the results also show that the assumption is highly sensitive to specific interactions at the soil-plant-atmosphere interface and, consequently, does not hold under certain circumstances.  相似文献